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Excess deaths in Turkey

Between 11 March – 10 November 2020, in 16 provinces and 3 provincial centers, 29,683 more people died than the average of the previous years. Average increase rate is 23%. 56% of Turkey’s population lives in In these provinces and provincial center.

The calculations were made according to the P-Score method here: Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

Comparisons were made according to the number of deaths in the previous 5 years (2015-2019). Where data was absent or inconsistent, shorter time period were used. The time period in which province is used can be seen from the graphs of the provinces.

Provinces involved in the study: İstanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, G.Antep, Konya, Diyarbakır, Malatya, K.Maraş, Elazığ (C), Edirne (C), Kocaeli, Denizli, Sakarya, Erzurum, Tekirdağ, Sivas (C), Kayseri, Hatay
*C=Provincial center

All of the data used are publicly available. Their addresses can be seen in the excess death graphs of each province.
Sources:
E-State (turkiye.gov.tr)
İstanbul, Bursa, Konya, Diyarbakır, Malatya, Kahramanmaraş, Kocaeli, Denizli, Sakarya, Erzurum, Tekirdağ
Municipality websites:
Gaziantep, Kayseri, Elazig (C), Edirne (C), Sivas (C)
Cemetery systems:
Ankara, Izmir, Hatay

The data used in the study is available on Github: Excess mortality in Turkey

Red: Excess deaths in 16 provinces and 3 provincial centers
Blue: Official Covid-19 deaths in whole Turkey
Usak – as of 24 November 2020

As of 29 September 2020 – Graphs of provinces and provincial center